Rare earth prices fluctuate greatly, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market [SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review]

July 17 News:

Rare Earth Ores:

Today, the price range of rare earth carbonate is 38,400-38,900 yuan/mt, monazite prices have adjusted to 45,500-46,000 yuan/mt, and the price of medium-yttrium, europium-rich ore is approximately 199,000-200,000 yuan/mt. Recently, as the off-season for downstream demand approaches its end and upstream supply of rare earths remains relatively tight, suppliers at the ore end have high bullish sentiment, with most ore suppliers holding back cargoes, leading to a sluggish trading atmosphere in the rare earth ore market.

Rare Earth Oxides:

Currently, the price of lanthanum oxide continues to stabilize at 4,200-4,800 yuan/mt, and the price of cerium oxide has adjusted to 10,500-11,300 yuan/mt this week. The La-Ce market remains stable recently without significant fluctuations. This week, the price of Pr-Nd oxide has fluctuated more frequently. Driven by speculation on upstream news factors at the beginning of the week, Pr-Nd prices surged significantly. Meanwhile, fear of high prices gradually emerged in the market, and traders began to sell, leading to a brief jump initially and then pull back in the price of Pr-Nd oxide. However, most market participants remain bullish in the long term. With downstream purchase willingness gradually increasing, Pr-Nd prices surged rapidly again towards the end of the week. In terms of medium-heavy rare earths, due to the cessation of procurement by major upstream manufacturers, the prices of medium-heavy rare earths have remained relatively stable this week. The price of yttrium oxide also continues to trade sideways, remaining stable at 48,000-52,000 yuan/mt this week.

Rare Earth Metals:

At the beginning of this week, the price of Pr-Nd alloy rose significantly due to the upward adjustment in the oxide market prices, mainly influenced by speculation on upstream news factors. Meanwhile, fear of high prices in the market, combined with downstream orders being unable to accept high-priced metals, led some suppliers to lower their quotes. However, overall transactions remained stagnant, and the market continued to operate in the doldrums. But as prices declined, purchase willingness in the market gradually increased, leading to an overall improvement in trading activity and a rapid surge in Pr-Nd alloy prices. In terms of medium-heavy rare earths, influenced by weak downstream end-use demand and magnetic material enterprises focusing their procurement on the light rare earth market, the prices of medium-heavy rare earth metals such as dysprosium and terbium have remained stable overall.

Rare Earth Permanent Magnets:

The prices of NdFeB blanks are as follows: NdFeB blank N38 (Ce) is priced at 151-161 yuan/kg; NdFeB blank 40M is priced at 196-208 yuan/kg; NdFeB blank 40H is priced at 201-211 yuan/kg; NdFeB blank 45SH (Ce) is priced at 251-271 yuan/kg.

Regarding prices: At the beginning of the week, influenced by the sharp fluctuations in upstream rare earth oxide and metal prices, magnetic material enterprises generally chose to hold steady and observe after briefly and slightly raising their quotes. Entering the second half of the week, under the pressure of sustained high ore prices, magnetic material enterprises have raised their product quotes one after another to cope with the rising costs of raw materials.

Transaction Level: Market activity has shown a steady increase this week. From a macro perspective, positive signals from Sino-US relations have boosted the optimistic expectations of magnetic material enterprises for the future market. Meanwhile, the normalization of international export approval processes and the maintenance of smooth channels have encouraged overseas end-users to actively stockpile and place orders in advance, driving the continuous growth of new orders for domestic enterprises. Domestically, as the traditional off-season for demand approaches its end in July, coupled with factors such as new energy enterprises striving to increase output in H2, the recovery in demand for consumer goods like air conditioners and mobile phones during the summer vacation, the domestic demand for magnetic materials has been collectively stimulated, ultimately driving up overall transaction activity.

Rare Earth Scrap:

This week, the price of Pr-Nd recycled from NdFeB scrap closed at 516-522 yuan/kg; the price of dysprosium recycled from NdFeB scrap closed at 1,643-1,654 yuan/kg; and the price of terbium recycled from NdFeB scrap closed at 5,439-5,550 yuan/kg.

This week, the scrap market experienced significant price fluctuations, generally showing an upward trend. At the beginning of the week, influenced by the rapid rise in oxide market prices, there was a strong reluctance to sell in the scrap market, making it difficult for recycling enterprises to purchase at low prices. As a result, they had to raise their quotes, leading to a rapid increase in scrap prices. However, as oxide market prices pulled back, recycling enterprises became cautious about purchasing at high prices, causing scrap prices to initially jump and then pull back. Towards the end of the week, with oxide market prices rising again, recycling enterprises became more active in purchasing and raised their quotes for scrap. Nevertheless, influenced by the gradual recovery in end-use demand, some market participants had higher price expectations, making it difficult for recycling enterprises to close deals at low prices.

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